The Tanzanian coffee sector is set for significant growth with mixed conditions as the 2025/26 season approaches. Weather patterns show increased rainfall in northern and western regions, while southern growing areas experience average rain conditions. Production is projected to rise due to expansion of acreage by producers and promotion of high performing coffee varieties. With Recent policy changes by the Tanzania Coffee Board regarding export licensing may impact price negotiation dynamics. There is potential increase of actors at the origin (Buyers – locals and international) suggesting potential supply constraints in the coming months.
Weather and Climate Conditions
Northern Regions (Kilimanjaro, Arusha)
- Long rain season with medium to high humidity
- Favorable soil moisture conditions supporting cherry development
- Extended wet season forecast through June, positive for crop development
- Risk of fungal diseases increased due to high humidity
Southern Highlands (Mbeya, Iringa, Songwe)
- Experience the decrease in rainfall which marks the transition from rain season to dry season
Western Regions (Kigoma, Kagera)
- Normal rainfall patterns observed
- Fluctuates between 20 C to 29 C
- The weather becomes more stable for outdoor activities
- Weather conditions generally supportive of good crop development
Outlook: Weather patterns show regional variability that will likely create uneven ripening schedules across the country. Northern regions may see delayed harvest due to extended rains, while southern regions wet mills are opening from Mid may.
Crop Disease and Pest Monitoring
Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR)
- While incidence reported notable prevalence of CLR among coffee farms in Songwe, Southern higher land,
- TCB reports deployment of additional extension officers to affected areas
Coffee Berry Disease (CBD)
- Minor incidence reported in higher elevation farms such as in Southern highland and Northern Tanzania
- Preventative spraying programs showing effectiveness
- Currently well-controlled in most regions
Outlook: While disease pressure varies significantly by region, there have been no major outbreak reports this year.
Policy and Regulatory Environment
Recent Changes
- New TCB Directive 2025/03 (issued April 12, 2025) modified export licensing requirements:
- Export licenses now require proof of minimum farm gate prices paid
- Documentation of sustainability practices now mandatory for license renewal
- Three-tiered fee structure implemented based on export volume
Auction System Modifications
- Direct Export Permits now available for specialty lots scoring 85+ points
- Electronic auction system fully implemented as of March 2025
- Centralized quality control laboratories established in Moshi and Mbozi
Currency and Financial Regulations
- Tanzanian Shilling stabilized after 8% depreciation in Q1 2025
- Central Bank maintaining current foreign exchange policies
- No new restrictions on capital movement reported
Outlook: New licensing requirements may extend export timelines by 10-15 days and potentially increase administrative costs. Buyers should factor these changes into purchase planning. The direct export permit option presents new opportunities for securing high-quality lots outside the auction system.
Inventory Levels and Supply Chain
Current Inventory Status
- The Government of Tanzania has set an ambitious target to increase coffee production to 5 million 60-kg bags by the 2025/2026 marketing season. However, considering current weather and climate conditions observed across various regions, as well as the incidence of crop diseases, production volumes are projected to increase by 36% in Kagera region and only 7–10% by country as whole from the current level of 1.5 million bags—similar to the growth rate anticipated for the 2024/2025 season.
Port and Logistics Situation
- Dar es Salaam port operating at normal capacity
- Average container dwell time: 12 days (improved from 15 days in 2024)
- Road transport is commonly used for local transportation of coffee to the port
Outlook: Lower-than-average inventory levels suggest potential price pressure for immediate shipments. Forward contracts recommended for Q3-Q4 requirements. Container availability has improved compared to 2024, but advance booking remains advisable.
Price Trends and Market Dynamics
Farm Gate Prices (April 2025)
- Arabica (average): 12,850 TZS/kg (↑7% from March)
- Robusta (average): 5,420 TZS/kg (↑3% from March)
- Premium for specialty grades: +15-22% over standard grades
Auction Prices (April 2025 Average)
March auction prices
AA: Min $5.84 – Max $7.6/KG
A: Min $5.04 – Max $7.14/KG
PB: Min $5.00 – Max $7.34/KG
- March was the last Auction for 2024/2025 season
Export Price Indicators
- Actual FOB Dar Es Salaam price indicator = (Purchase price + local transport & documents administration + Port charges)
Outlook: Price trend indicates strengthening fundamentals across all grades, with particular premium growth for Peaberry and specialty lots. The differential to ICE has widened slightly, reflecting quality perception and supply constraints. Current conditions favor sellers in negotiations.
Harvest Projections
2025/26 Season Forecast
- Total production estimate: 96,000 – 99,000 MT
Regional Production Outlook
- Northern regions: On track for average to slightly above-average production
- Southern highlands: On track for average projection
- Western regions: Average production expected
Harvest Timeline
- Early harvest (lowland areas): Beginning mid-April
- Main harvest (northern): July-September
- Main harvest (southern): June-August
- Processing capacity currently sufficient for projected volumes
Outlook: Early harvesting has begun in some lowland areas with mixed quality reports.
Buyer Recommendations
Short-term Strategy (1-3 months)
- Secure forward contracts for Q3-Q4 requirements
- Consider price locking for specialty grades given upward price momentum
- Monitor southern region quality reports carefully; cup before purchase
- Build in extra lead time (10-15 days) for exports due to new licensing requirements
Medium-term Strategy (3-6 months)
- Develop relationships with northern region producers where harvest projections are stronger
- Consider contract splitting across multiple origins to mitigate potential supply constraints
- Monitor TCB policy developments for additional regulatory changes
- Explore new direct export permit system for specialty coffee needs
Quality Considerations
- Northern coffees expected to maintain typical profiles
- Cup carefully or request multiple samples before committing to larger contracts
Consider moisture content verification for all shipments due to variable weather patterns
Additional Resources
- Tanzania Coffee Board Auction Calendar: www.coffee.go.tz/auction-calendar
- Monthly Production Statistics: www.coffee.go.tz/statistics
- Regulatory Updates: www.coffee.go.tz/regulations
This report uses data from the Tanzania Coffee Board and other reliable industry sources. Market conditions can change rapidly; buyers should verify current conditions before making significant purchasing decisions.
- Tanzania Coffee Market Report- May 2025 - May 26, 2025